Wards Auto recently reported on the results of the 2019 Automotive Futures Powertrain Survey, which indicates electric vehicles will “gain strength” versus internal combustion engines by the late 2020s. You can question the results, and Wards Auto readily points out the first survey in 2006 predicted 55 percent of powertrains in 2020 would be alternatives to internal combustion engines.
The big question is what “gain strength” really means? If you look at the survey results, it boils down to mild hybrids, full hybrids, and all-electric vehicles gaining more market share. That’s about the biggest no-brainer, considering there are many electrified models in the works, numerous which just barely launched, and more to come.
Digging further into the numbers, this is not a declaration that the gasoline engine will die by 2030, despite European cities and even some in the U.S. trying hard to guarantee their obsolescence. They should still be the second-most dominant force in the auto industry, with hybrids leading the way. Pure electric vehicles, on the other hand, are predicted to more than double in number, but still be a sliver of the larger pie.
Does this mean things will play out as predicted? Probably not. Only 122 experts anonymously provided feedback, and they can’t see the future. Any number of factors could change the lay of the land by 2030.
Source: Wards Auto