Did 2015 Begin The End For Diesel?

2016 Ford F-450 Super Duty (Credit: Ford)

If diesel has started to decline, as some are predicting it has, everyone can thank Volkswagen and its emissions-cheating ways. Many industry experts, including Elmar Degenhart, the CEO of Continental (the company that makes tires and many other automotive components), think that’s exactly what’s going on, signaling the beginning of the end for diesel.

It might be a somewhat slow death for diesel, but 2015 likely was the pinnacle for the fuel, at least when it comes to passenger vehicles. While the demise of diesel in Europe sounds unlikely, thanks to the fuel enjoying roughly half of the market, things aren’t looking good elsewhere.

The heat is turning up in the United States, thanks to tightening emissions standards. In Japan and China it’s the same story, more or less. Considering that China and the U.S. are the two largest car markets in the world, a shift away from diesel in both could be enough to kill the fuel for good in pretty much the entire world, according to Degenhart and others.

China has been pushing electrification big time as a way to clean things up, instead of trusting in the cleanliness of diesel cars. This effort has been driving up demand for plug-in hybrids and pure electrics in a huge way.

For now, most diesels seem to be passing emissions standards in the United States. But as those standards continue to rise, that might not be the reality anymore.

With the whole Dieselgate fallout, even India is making moves to temporarily ban the sale of certain diesel-powered passenger vehicles. The government has turned to increasingly more drastic measures to cut down on its monstrous pollution, including limiting which cars can enter Delhi on a given day. All taxis in the city also have to be converted to CNG by March. As India continues to grow in economic might, becoming a bigger influence in the global automotive market, this also spells trouble for diesel.

Even before the whole Volkswagen scandal came to light, the UK and France were both trying to move away from diesel cars. Back in the spring of 2015, both governments were actively campaigning for citizens to purchase hybrids and EVs. If even in diesel’s stronghold there are countries that want to see it go away, it’s only a matter of time before the fuel is all but dead.