Barclays: Autonomous Cars Will Trigger Sales Plummet

Mercedes F 015 Concept (Credit: Mercedes )

Barclays automotive analysts recently published a report about the effects of fully-autonomous vehicles on the market. Like many others, they predicted that the new technology will cause some major shakeups in the industry, including making it so more households have only one vehicle. Unlike many others, Barclays admits that it’s just one potential scenario, acknowledging that predicting market behavior so far into the future can be tricky.

Many other analysts, journalists and armchair admirals have recently published articles declaring that personal car ownership will cease to exist as every last vehicle on Earth will drive itself all the time. Along with these predictions are bold statements about how virtually every service currently associated with vehicles will be eliminated, along with all pleasure associated with driving one’s own vehicle. Fortunately, Barclays has the sense to realize such predictions are a bunch of ill-thought garbage.

Instead, analysts at Barclays say that they estimate that slightly half of all vehicles on American roads are used solely for commuting. The thought is that all of those cars will be replaced by autonomous models. After all, who actually loves commuting in heavy traffic every day? “Robot taxis” that drive themselves around will also likely crop up, replacing current car-sharing services. Barclays also predicted that some families will share one autonomous vehicle, sending it from one destination to another as needed. An estimated surge in single-vehicle homes would take place, rising from 32 percent of families right now to 84 percent in about 25 years.

The remaining vehicles likely won’t be replaced by fully-autonomous models, says Barclays. It recognizes that there are practical limitations to the future technology, such as SUVs and trucks that are used to regularly go off-roading or to perform various work-related activities that require a human to be in constant control.

What all of this means is that people who hate driving and clog up roads with their zombie Camrys, Altimas and Impalas will likely opt for autonomous vehicles. Performance enthusiasts won’t have to contend with those people hogging the left lane anymore, which sounds like a wonderful future.